Kerry's Personality vs. Bush's Personality On this page, we present our findings regarding Bush and Kerry and reveal their standing on nine qualities shown to forecast presidential success in an analysis by our contributor, Deniz Ones, Ph.D., of the University of Minnesota. Unlike the other profiles in our book, those for Bush and Kerry are based on ratings by us and our associates (Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D. and his student, Adam Beatty [rated Kerry only]). Unfortunately, we were not able to obtain the same sort of experts (biographers, history professors) for the current candidates as we did for the presidents we profile. In the future, we hope to do so. It is fair to ask if we have political or other biases that would affect our ratings. None of us knows Bush or Kerry personally. One of the two authors voted for Bush in 2000. Dr. Immelman, who provided his ratings and those of one of his students, has a published an article defending Bush's intelligence (http://www.csbsju.edu/uspp/Election/bush011401.htm). None of us is a strong Bush or Kerry supporter. We relied on respected biographies such as First Son by Bill Minutaglio (Bush) and Tour of Duty (Douglas Brinkley) and John F. Kerry: The Complete Biography by the Boston Globe Reporters Who Know Him Best, as well as print and broadcast media. We have already profiled Bush in the last chapter of our book, and more information is presented there than here. Below is a profile of his scores on the Big Five personality Factors and Character. The numbers on the side of the chart are percentile scores, while the shaded line on the chart is the average score of US presidents. Bush's low score on Character is the result of low or high scores on the 11 facet scales that together make up the index. Those contributing to his low score are Angry Hostility (high), Dutifulness (low), Impulsiveness (high), and Straightforwardness (low). John Kerry John Kerry was rated by Steve Rubenzer, Ph.D., Tom Faschingbauer, Ph.D., Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., and Adam Beatty (Dr. Immelman's student). An overview of Kerry's personality is given by the following chart, which shows Kerry's estimated scores on Character and the Big Five personality traits. As shown, Kerry scores low on Character, about average on Neuroticism and Extraversion, low on Agreeableness, and high on Openness to Experience. Comparing scores to those of Bush, the biggest differences on Openness to Experience (imaginative, complex, curious, broad-minded, philosophical vs. conventional, practical, conservative) and Extraversion. On the more specific scales of the NEO-PI-R, Kerry obtained the following high and low scores compared to typical Americans: High Percentile   Low Percentile Excitement-seeking 95   Altruism 0.8 Assertiveness 95   Dutifulness 1.6 Openness to Values 92   Straightforwardness 1.9       Modesty 3       Warmth 7 These numbers (as all those we cite) should be regarded as best estimates and not as precise figures. Psychological measurement almost always involves substantial amounts of error. Those scale names in italics indicate there was a substantial range of opinion among raters. Lastly, we compare Bush and Kerry on the nine traits that Dr. Ones showed are related to presidential success. Here, the scores are compared to other presidents, so that a score substantially above 50 is a strength, substantially below 50 a weakness. Summing these factors and comparing them with previous presidents, we find George W. Bush obtains a standard (z) score of - .91 while Kerry obtains a score of .52. These are equivalent to, respectively, the 17th and 68th percentile. In other words, Bush is predicted to eventually be regarded in the lower sixth among presidents, while Kerry, if elected, should be rated in the upper third. Caveats None of us can be considered true experts on Bush or Kerry, as were the raters who participated in the main study. Typically, each of us read two or more quality book-length biographies and relied on miscellaneous other media sources. To our knowledge, nobody has ever performed these sorts of analyses before - the closest analogies being our study using biographers and the work of our collaborator, Dr. Immelman, using a different inventory. Lastly, limitations in our knowledge may lead to some erratic functioning of the NEO Personality Inventory. We assigned moderate ratings (Neutral) on items where the information did not allow us to answer otherwise with certainty. Unfortunately, for many items on the Conscientiousness scale, such a rating is not an average score-it is below average. Most adults are described as competent, capable, and as usually making good decisions. If we demurred on these items and assigned a "neutral" rating, these answers would contribute to a low score when the item scores were added up. Analysis Kerry has a number of personality traits that probably limit his effectiveness as a candidate. These include his lack of Warmth and enthusiasm (low Positive Emotions), low scores on Altruism and Modesty, and a tendency to change his position excessively. However, only one of these (low Positive Emotions) has been demonstrated to be a weakness should he be elected. Kerry appears considerably stronger (if only average) as a potential president than he does (at the time this is written) as a candidate. What about Kerry's vaunted tendency to flip-flop on positions? Bush's camp has portrayed him as indecisive because of this. However, Kerry has come out with strong opinions and expressed them forcefully. He is able to decide and then act upon his position - which seems close to the definition of "decisive." He just changes his mind, or his position, often. None of the scales from the NEO PI, which were the primary variables used in Dr. Ones's analyses, are directly related to decisiveness or the tendency to change one's position. However, there are individual items in our questionnaire that are. Each item was correlated with measures of presidential success. As might be expected, being rated as decisive was quite important to being a successful president. However, being "consistent, predictable" was inversely related to historians' ratings: better presidents are rated as being less consistent. Bush, in contrast to Kerry, appears to have more personality assets as a candidate than as a president. Our findings echo accusations that Bush is not very smart, not competent (doesn't keep well-informed, makes poor judgments), and not hardworking. Recall that our "rated intelligence" factor is not the same as an IQ test and Bush may score better on such a measure than he did on our ratings. But ratings of intelligence were used in Dr. Ones's analysis and were shown to correlate strongly with presidential success: Being perceived as intelligent, complex, and creative may be just as important as IQ. Lastly, despite his low scores on most traits related to leadership, there are other analyses that soften this assessment. Of all the presidents, Bush appears to most closely resemble Andrew Jackson, another charismatic, incurious, impulsive, tempestuous personality. Jackson was regarded as a great or near-great president in every historian poll. The correlation of Bush's scores with Jackson's, across 592 items of our questionnaire, was .56 - a moderately high resemblance. To a lesser degree (.39), Bush also resembles Ronald Reagan. Reagan has been bestowed high honors (naming of the DC airport, federal buildings, and talk of adding him to Mount Rushmore) and seems headed to a secure place in history's estimation. Both Jackson and Reagan obtained low scores on rated intelligence and Competence, like Bush, although both were rated higher on Achievement Striving. Reagan was considerably more trusting and much lower on Angry Hostility than Bush. Can't Find a Better Man? According to our data and ratings, the American political process does not appear to be working very well. Out of tens of millions of potential candidates for president, we are faced with a choice between two candidates, only one of which is expected to finish in the upper half of the class. It seems unlikely that either candidate would have made it to the final round on The Apprentice - where candidates are judged on many of the same traits we find related to presidential success. An op-ed piece incorporating much of this material, and explaining the traits that predict success, is available through e-mail to the media.